Welcome to The Paoli Group Market Update

Our examination of the Steamboat Springs real estate market.



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Hello Friends,

The topic for this month’s newsletter is, “What do I do today?”

Sellers:
If you need to sell, price your property as aggressively as possible and be in front of the market. The majority of properties receiving bids and interest in today’s market are those that look like great deals.

Buyers:
If you are a buyer, who’s been waiting on the sidelines, now is the time to look very seriously! This August and September, we feel we will see some very aggressive moves in price by sellers who need to sell. Here is a link to see the 150 plus price changes in the last 14 days.( Click Here to View Listings ) By becoming educated today, you will be ready to act when the deals present themselves. Our opinion is that the next 12 months will present the best buying opportunity for many years to come. We may be off by 6 to 12 months on the absolute bottom, however the combination of incredibly low interest rates and great pricing makes it an exciting time for buyers.

As the end of August nears, here is a look at what has sold since 6/1/2010. ( Click here for a link to spreadsheet ) ( Click Here to View Listings )
  • Since 6/1/2010, there have been 72 sales
  • Only 11 of these sales have been between $500,000 and $1,000,000, which to us appears to be the weakest category.
    • Looking a little further, we see only 2 single homes sales in this price range (highlighted in blue in the spreadsheet). This is not an encouraging number of transactions considering the 200 homes on the market in this price range.
  • Over $1million dollars, we are seeing the biggest average discounting from asking price. The average transaction is occurring at 87% of asking price. One reason is, most transactions in this price range are all cash (including some of the larger $4million dollar closings). In all cash transactions, buyers can and are very aggressive regarding price.

We are seeing pricing that is significantly below replacement cost. Historically, we feel the overall price of homes oscillates around replacement costs, so it functions as a good benchmark for pricing. The deals we are starting to see are incredible opportunities to purchase properties well below the cost of construction. Here are two great examples:


This newsletter may appear very negative on the overall outlook for the Steamboat market. In fact, we are actually very positive. Whether we like it or not, the market place dictates prices and until now, the Steamboat market has been somewhat over priced in the eyes of a buyer. We are optimistic that the next 6 to 12 months will see this sentiment change. We also believe the supply of homes will decrease much faster than most people think. The general public makes decisions in a herd mentality. When people start to sell, everyone wants to sell, resulting in a quick rise in listings for sale. The reverse is true as well. As properties start to sell, people will pull their homes off the market, not wanting to sell at the bottom. Furthermore, there are many sellers with multiple properties on the market. When one sells, they will pull the other off. Considering the long term time horizon for real estate, we believe the next 6 to 12 months will be viewed as a great time to have bought real estate in Steamboat.

Highlights for the month of June:
Click here to view June 2010 Market Analysis pdf.
  • Sales volume for June 2010 was $35,689,200 a 116% increase from the previous June 2009.
  • Sales Volume continues to climb from the previous year, with $255,250,400 so far this year, compared to only $131,576,300 YTD for 2009. This represents a 194% increase.
  • Units sold were 167 for June 2010 compared to only 67 from June 2009. This represents a 249% increase.
  • The units sold YTD have almost doubled compared to the same period YTD 2009.
  • Timeshares/Fractionals continue to dominate the units sold with 117 out of the 167 sales reported for June 2010.
Notable sales over $2M:
  • 6/15/2010 $4,300,000 Kortas Exemption Subd Replat Lot 3, Lot 3A – 35755 Blazemark Trail – 5 Brm 7 Bath YOC 2007 with 8,816 SF on 20.96 AC. This is a new construction sale for $487.75 PSF located in the South Routt County Area.
  • 6/16/2010 $2,980,000 Elkins Meadows at Little Fish Creek Lot 5 – 2890 Bucks Path – 5 Brm 6 Bath YOC 2005 with 7,401 SF on 2.060 AC. PPSF = $402.65. Location is Fish Creek.
Other notable sales on the new project front:
  • One Highmark sold this month, and one First Tracks.
  • OSP @ Apres Ski had one sale of a commercial unit:
    6/23/2010 OSP @ Apres Ski Way Unit C-313 – 2250 Apres Ski Way – 1,899 SF Commercial Unit YOC 2009, purchased by Fliescher Sports, LLC
Analysis provided by: Bruce Carta of Land Title Guarantee Company



Chris Paoli
Owner/Broker
Cell 970.819.1432
chris@mybrokers.com

Amy Brown
Broker Associate
Colorado Group Realty, LLC
Cell 970.846.2114
Fax 970.870.2803
amybrown@mybrokers.com


www.steamboat-springs-developments.com


The Paoli Group Blog: www.steamboatcoloradorealestate.blogspot.com


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